After reading the book Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell, I spent 10,000 hours studying the results of NFL games over the last 30 years. It became clear after all of this studying, that one may predict the outcome of a season for any given team using the following scientific formuli:
BASELINE.
The baseline is determined using the total number of wins from the previous year and categorizing your team in one of three categories:
12 - 16 Wins - Superbowl Contendor, Baseline for new season: 5 wins
8 - 11 Wins - Playoff-ish, 4 wins
4 - 7 Wins - In Transition, 3 wins
0 - 3 Wins - National Embarrasment, 2 wins
The baseline win total will be used as a starting point to begin our examination of a team's chances. For the purposes of this excersize, we'll use the Chicago Bears 2010 win total of 11, to give us a 4 win baseline.
Offense.
What we're going to be looking at is the difference from the year before, or the rate of change of the offense. We're looking for the number of spots the team could hope to move in the upcoming year. The Chicago Bears were 30th out of 32 teams. In our case, it would be reasonable to expect the Bears to move into the middle part of the league, let's say 16th. That's a change of 14 spots and an improvement of 43.75%. Here's the number of wins you can add or subtract to the baseline using this formula:
Improvement of 0 - 33%: 1 win
Improvement of 34 - 65%: 2 wins
Improvement of 66%+:3 wins
Worse by 0 - 25%: No change
Worse by 26 - 50%: -1 win
Worse by 50%+: -2 wins
Using this, the Chicago bears would add 2 wins to their baseline total to give us 6 wins.
Defense.
The defensive numbers are the same. Using the info above, but applying it to defense we would probably not have a great change to the Chicago Bears number of wins. They were ranked 9th at the end of the 2010 season, and I would expect them only to improve slightly or worsen slightly. Let's add 1 to the total and put us at 7 predicted wins.
Coaching / Special Teams
Because of some rather drastic changes to the rulebook as it applies to special teams this year, we're going to combine the 3rd phase with coaching to give us a general sense of where your team stands. Go ahead and take a minute to rate your coaching staff from 0-3, 3 being excellent. Same for your special teams. Total them up and you'll us the following categories:
0-2 points: -1 win
3-4 points: No change
5-6 points: +1 win
That puts the Chicago Bears at 8 wins for the 2011 season with only one more calculation to make...
Health.
Health represents the greatest unknown for any team's season, and impossible to predict unless you have players injured significantly going into the season, or lose someone early in training camp. There are 25 starters each week (11 for offense/defense and punter, kicker, returner) and most teams can easily absorb between 2 - 5 injuries before being effected. You can get a pretty good idea how prepared a team is to absorb injuries based on what they did last year.
Research says that teams that performed well the year before tend to draft players based on talent and not need as much as teams that performed poorly. Use the breakdown from the very top of the post to determine the number of injuries your team can absorb replacing wins (above) with injuries. The Bears won 11 games, so they should be able to absorb 4 injuries to starters.
This is most useful to keep running track of expectations over the course of the season. As long as your team is below the number (4) then add 2 wins to the total, at the number = 1, and if the number of injured goes above your team's number, start getting nervous. Subtract 1 win once the number of injuries surpasses your teams threshold, and subtract 2 once you've doubled the number.
Finally.
As long as the Bears stay healthy, you can expect them to win 9 or 10 games this season. Speedy Willie scientists have applied this formula (with subtle changes) to every football season since 1983 and have found that only two teams have not adhered: The 1987 LA Chargers (The Flipper Anderson Effect) and the 2005 New Orleans Saints (Katrina Effect.)
Good Luck to one & all!
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